Tesla stock has a SpaceX problem, veteran analyst says
The global investment bankJefferies just added a fresh twist to the Tesla (TSLA) stock debate. According to TheFly, veteran analyst Philippe Houchois kept his cautious stance on Tesla, but his latest take goes beyond deliveries, margins, robotaxis or EV demand. His concern is tied to SpaceX ...
Tesla stock has a SpaceX problem, veteran analyst says
Overview
The global investment bankJefferies just added a fresh twist to the Tesla (TSLA) stock debate.
According to TheFly, veteran analyst Philippe Houchois kept his cautious stance on Tesla, but his latest take goes beyond deliveries, margins, robotaxis or EV demand.
His concern is tied to SpaceX (SPCX), and it could change how investors think about Elon Musk’s broader company empire.
Tesla bulls continue focusing on AI upside, but Jefferies is warning about a different kind of valuation problem.
For perspective, Tesla stock has been under duress over the past several months. According to Seeking Alpha, the stock has shed 17% of its value in the past six months and is down almost 5% in the past month.
That contrast matters because Tesla stock already trades on more than near-term earnings.
Even with the pullback, the stock is still trading at 196 times forward non-GAAP earnings, 67% higher than its 5-year average, according to Seeking Alpha.
Hence, investors have been paying for a future built around autonomy, software, energy and robotics. Now another Musk-linked story is entering the frame, raising questions about what Tesla stockholders are actually pricing in.
What changed in the Jefferies Tesla call
Houchois kept a cautious Hold rating on Tesla stock and set a $375 price target, but the bigger message in the note was more about valuation.
The top analyst and his team believe that, especially after SpaceX’s earth-shattering debut, the market may be starting to value Tesla for something outside Tesla itself.
Houchois warns that investor speculation linked to SpaceX could turn Tesla into a kind of proxy for Elon Musk’s space company.
To be fair, Tesla has long been known as a “battleground stock”, having traded on more than vehicle deliveries, margins and near-term earnings.
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Bulls have argued that the company deserves a premium because of autonomy, robotaxis, software, energy storage and humanoid robots.
Jefferies isn’t dismissing that idea, but the bigger concern is that another Musk-linked story enters Tesla’s valuation, making the stock even harder to analyze on fundamentals.
Details
For context, Houchois isn’t just a casual Tesla skeptic. He has covered the auto sector for years and has had major Tesla calls in the past.
According to TipRanks, he has a 51% success rate and a 14.5% average return per rating, with his best tracked call being a Tesla Buy rating from April 2020 to December 2020 that returned nearly 491%.
That said, Houchois warning now is a lot more cautious.
He sees Tesla’s robotaxi and humanoid robot ambitions as potentially costly before they become profitable. Moreover, that pushes back against the most aggressive bull case, which assumes those businesses can quickly unlock high-margin growth.
Now investors have SpaceX to contend with, adding a massive new layer to an already complicated equation.
Tesla and SpaceX targets split over AI and FOMO
- Wedbush: $600. Wedbush sees Tesla’s AI and autonomy push driving the bull case, per Investopedia.
- Mizuho: $530. According to Yahoo Finance, Mizuho covered Tesla and cited improving self-driving performance and faster robotaxi expansion.
- Cantor: $510. Cantor remains bullish on Tesla’s FSD, Optimus and global robotaxi catalysts, according to Business Insider
- JPMorgan: $475. According to Reuters, JPMorgan sees Tesla’s robotics and software reshaping Tesla’s earnings path.
- Arete: $401. Arete’s target leans on next-gen Starlink upside for SpaceX stock, per Barron's
- Oppenheimer: $190. According to Barron’s, Oppenheimer rated SpaceX a buy after its IPO.
Why SpaceX changes the Tesla stock debate
SpaceX’s IPO was far from being a typical market debut.
The company priced its offering at $135 a share and quickly became one of the most tracked public listings in years, selling about 555.6 million shares and raising nearly $75 billion, assigning an IPO valuation of $1.8 trillion, according to Reuters.
That makes the Tesla connection powerful but risky.
Investors already connect Tesla, SpaceX, xAI and Musk’s larger AI ambitions. The more SpaceX trades like a mega-cap growth story, the more investors wonder whether Tesla should be linked to it, merged with it or treated as a way to gain indirect exposure to it.
If Tesla stock starts to trade like a SpaceX proxy, traditional Tesla analysis becomes less useful. Vehicle sales, gross margins and earnings would still matter, but they might not fully explain stock moves.
Speaking of core business, in Q1 2026, Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles, below analyst expectations of about 368,903, while production reached 408,386, leaving more than 50,000 vehicles in the inventory.
Hence, Tesla could become more sensitive to SpaceX headlines, merger speculation and Musk's capital-allocation decisions.
That may excite traders, but it creates a harder question for long-term investors: are they buying into Tesla’s fundamentals or the wider Musk ecosystem?
Related: Intel CEO gives investors a reality check
Source
Originally published at www.thestreet.com.
