Paramount’s Warner deal has a new $650 million problem
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) could be encountering a further hurdle in its $110 billion chase of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). Britain does not necessarily want to block the accord. The greater danger may be that Britain recognizes the cost of delay. The U.K. government is reviewing whether it should ...
Overview
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) could be encountering a further hurdle in its $110 billion chase of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).
Britain does not necessarily want to block the accord.
The greater danger may be that Britain recognizes the cost of delay.
The U.K. government is reviewing whether it should intervene in Paramount’s planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, because of the public interest in relation to media plurality and competition. The Guardian newspaper reported that Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport Lisa Nandy declared on June 30 that she was “minded to” issue a public-interest intervention notice in relation to the acquisition and ask the UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to investigate the proposed merger.
That adds a new timing risk for investors to watch.
Paramount struck a deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 a share in cash, valuing the transaction at roughly $110 billion. The deal also includes a “ticking fee” of 25 cents per share, paid by Paramount to Warner Bros. shareholders for each quarter after Sept. 30 that the transaction has not finalized.
Reuters said the fee would equate to around $650 million in cash to be paid by Paramount every three months, providing the U.K. government some leverage over Paramount if a study drags on to slow the deal’s closure.
Paramount shares recently traded at $10.39, giving the company a market value of about $11.6 billion. Warner Bros. Discovery shares recently traded at $26.48, giving the company a market value of about $66 billion.
Paramount’s Warner bid faces a UK pressure point
The problem for Paramount is not merely to get approval.
It is approval on time.
The CMA is already looking at the deal under regular competition laws and lists Aug. 7 as the date for its Phase 1 judgment. The agency opened its merger probe on June 9.
A public-interest review would amplify that.
Lawyers and media advisors told Reuters that Britain's threat of action is likely aimed at securing pledges rather than blocking the merger outright. Possible concessions might involve commitments to protect independent news provision, retain U.K. children’s programming, and protect or grow Warner’s British production footprint, including Leavesden Studios.
That’s key because the acquisition involves a number of politically sensitive media properties.
Channel 5 is Britain’s free-to-air broadcaster and is owned by Paramount. CNN International is owned by Warner. The acquisition would also unite Nickelodeon and Cartoon Network, two big children’s-TV brands.
Related: Paramount's WBD merger faces major regulatory hurdle
The government's focus is media pluralism, the breadth of voices and content available to British audiences.
For Paramount, the easiest option may be to make promises that allow ministers to claim a win without a lengthy debate.
UK review could be about leverage, not a veto
The timing makes the U.K. threat powerful.
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Lawyers and advisers told Reuters the public interest case for intervention seemed limited, but the threat of a review might still convince Paramount to make voluntary adjustments rather than face delay.
Details
That’s the main investor problem.
A slight delay might not destroy the agreement, but it might make the deal pricier.
Key takeaways from the Paramount-Warner review
- Britain is weighing a public-interest intervention in Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery takeover.
- The issue is media plurality, especially news, children’s TV and streaming.
- The CMA has an Aug. 7 deadline for its Phase 1 merger decision.
- Paramount agreed to buy Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 a share in cash.
- The deal includes a 25-cent-per-share quarterly ticking fee after Sept. 30.
- Reuters reported that the fee could cost Paramount about $650 million every three months.
- Potential U.K. concessions could involve Channel 5 news, children’s programming and Warner’s U.K. production footprint.
The ticking fee changes the negotiating math.
For Paramount, each quarter after Sept. 30 that the deal has not closed adds a cash cost. This gives Britain a method to compel the corporation to make promises on news, children’s content, and U.K. production without necessarily trying to block the merger.
The approach was “sabre rattling” to extract concessions over U.K. programming, competition lawyer Ronan Scanlan told Reuters.
The treatments are easy to imagine.
Paramount might promise to preserve ITN as Channel 5’s news provider, rather than switching to CNN. It may imply that it will retain programming for children in the U.K. It might also commit to Warner’s Leavesden Studios, home of big pictures such as “Barbie” and the Harry Potter series.
Such pledges may be more palatable to Paramount than a prolonged examination that could jeopardize the deal’s schedule.
Warner deal still has several regulatory checkpoints
But the U.K. isn’t the only regulatory pressure point.
Paramount has proposed remedies to satisfy European Union competition concerns, Reuters has learned. The European Commission delayed its decision deadline to July 22 from July 7 to consider those remedies.
Reuters also said the deal has been approved by the U.S. Department of Justice, but California, New York and other U.S. states are planning a lawsuit to try to halt it.
That means Paramount’s Warner transaction is still dealing with a lengthy global regulatory process.
The corporation has good motive to press for speed.
The merger would unite two large entertainment firms with assets in cinema, television, streaming, news and sports. That’s precisely why regulators and nations are still looking at the transaction.
For investors, the question is not just whether Paramount can close the deal.
It is what Paramount may have to promise to close it quickly.
A U.K. review could end with limited commitments rather than a veto. But those commitments still matter because they show how governments can use public-interest powers to shape global media mergers.
That makes Britain’s move more than a regulatory footnote.
It is a reminder that in a megadeal this large, time is money, and after Sept. 30 every quarter of delay gets much pricier for Paramount.
Related: Paramount makes bold legal move for Warner Bros. deal
Source
Originally published at www.thestreet.com.
