‘Michael’ gives Lionsgate stock timely Hollywood test
Lionsgate (LION) just landed the kind of Hollywood win that investors can digest quite well. “Michael,” the Michael Jackson biopic starring Jaafar Jackson, is setting records, reaching $977.5 million at the worldwide box office, according to Variety. That includes $370.2 million domestically and ...
Overview
Lionsgate (LION) just landed the kind of Hollywood win that investors can digest quite well.
“Michael,” the Michael Jackson biopic starring Jaafar Jackson, is setting records, reaching $977.5 million at the worldwide box office, according to Variety. That includes $370.2 million domestically and $607.3 million internationally, surpassing “Oppenheimer” as the highest-grossing biopic of all time.
The Numbers lists the film’s production budget at $155 million, meaning its worldwide box office is about 6.3 times its budget — nothing to scoff at.
That is not just a movie milestone.
The box office success of the film will give a Wall Street-friendly proof point at a critical juncture for Lionsgate, when investors the world over are still deciding how to value the company after its separation from Starz.
Lionsgate completed that separation in May 2025, creating two standalone public companies. Lionsgate began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker LION, while Starz became a separate company, creating a lot of confusion regarding the future of both entities.
The bigger story is not just “Michael” winning the box office. It's also significant that a theatrical-first movie just created a global cultural event that streaming rivals, including Netflix (NFLX), have struggled to replicate with most original films.
“We began our journey 25 years ago as a new and different kind of studio,” Lionsgate CEO Jon Feltheimer said when the company completed its Starz separation.
Now, more than ever, the words ring true.
Lionsgate stock gets a clear box office catalyst
The box office math is unusually easy to understand.
The Numbers lists “Michael” with $370.2 million in domestic box office, $607.3 million internationally, and $977.5 million worldwide. The site also lists a $155 million production budget.
That does not mean Lionsgate keeps all of that money.
Theaters take a cut. Marketing costs are messy. Talent participation can reduce studio upside. And Lionsgate’s role is not global, because it distributes the film in the U.S., while Universal handles international markets.
Still, the headline performance gives Lionsgate a rare proof point.
The company says it releases 30 to 40 films a year, including about a dozen wide theatrical releases, and manages a film and television library with more than 20,000 titles.
That is the investor story “Michael” strengthens.
A nearly $1 billion theatrical hit can support more than box office revenue. It can help downstream licensing, home entertainment, premium video on demand, future streaming windows, and broader library value.
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That makes for a cleaner bull case for LION.
Investors aren't looking at one movie. They’re exploring whether Lionsgate can turn its slate, branding, and library into a sustainable revenue engine as a new, independent company.
That's why, beyond the bragging rights of Hollywood, "Michael" matters.
When a studio has a theatrical hit, it gets to monetize attention in phases. It might start with box office receipts and then roll through later windows. In contrast, a streaming-first picture often must establish its worth via subscriber retention, engagement, and brand halo.
That difference is now becoming harder for Wall Street to chuck to the side.
"Michael" creates quiet problem for Netflix
Netflix is not directly hurt by “Michael” in the way a rival studio gets burned after losing an opening weekend. The problem for NFLX is more strategic in nature.
The bulk of the streamer's revenue comes from monthly subscription fees attached to the content. The entertainment video business competes for consumers’ spare time across streaming, gaming, social media, and other entertainment options.
This is a useful contrast with "Michael."
The film didn’t have to be part of a subscription bundle to indicate demand. Audiences paid for it individually in theaters all over the world.
That’s the bit that might sting for Netflix. It has created one of the world’s most powerful entertainment platforms, delivering films, episodes, games, and live content across genres and languages. But the company’s strategy for movies has frequently focused on streaming availability, rather than protracted exclusive theatrical runs.
“Michael” has real event potential, and Netflix runs the danger of leaving something on the table.
Details
Theatrical release might generate scarcity. It can make a movie a public event. It can produce box-office receipts before the title is a streaming or licensing asset.
That's a different economic ladder than just dropping a movie right into a platform.
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Netflix seems to understand the situation.
The business intends to give “Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew” a seven-week exclusive global cinema release before the film moves to Netflix, according to The Wall Street Journal.
This is important because it shows Netflix is ready to try a more traditional theatrical model for certain of its large, expensive movies.
But “Michael” is another level.
If a music biopic can reach $1 billion worldwide, Netflix has to question itself if some of its most significant movies should be regarded less like subscription fare and more like theatrical spectacles.
Not that Netflix should just emulate legacy studios across the board.
Its streaming approach still provides it with scalability, global reach, and regular revenue. But “Michael” makes that trade-off more obvious. A streaming-first release can increase engagement, and a theatrical-first release can create a second revenue event before streaming even begins.
"Michael" gives Lionsgate sequel leverage
“Michael” chronicles Jackson’s journey from the Jackson 5 to global superstardom, focusing on the songs, performances and cultural touchstones that made him one of the most recognized entertainers in the world.
That has worked commercially.
The film has already surpassed “Bohemian Rhapsody” ($911 million worldwide) to become the highest-grossing music biopic of all time. It also beat "The Hunger Games: Catching Fire" to become Lionsgate’s biggest-grossing film, according to Deadline.
For Lionsgate, the bigger question is what’s next.
A movie this big almost immediately leads to sequel conjecture. The company is set to greenlight at least one additional film about Jackson’s life, Variety reported.
Key takeaways for Lionsgate and Netflix investors
- “Michael” has grossed about $977 million worldwide, passing “Oppenheimer” as the highest-grossing biopic.
- The film’s listed production budget is $155 million, putting worldwide box office at about 6.3 times budget.
- Lionsgate distributes the film domestically, while Universal handles international markets.
- Lionsgate became a standalone public company under ticker LION after separating from Starz in May 2025.
- Netflix is not directly damaged by “Michael,” but the film puts pressure on Netflix’s streaming-first movie strategy.
- Netflix’s planned theatrical window for “Narnia” suggests the company is already testing whether some films deserve a bigger theatrical runway.
And this is when it gets more tricky.
“Michael” has also been criticized for sanitizing Jackson’s life, and a sequel would have to tackle tougher material.
That could be a risk for Lionsgate. A sequel that sidesteps the topic would attract more criticism. A follow-up that addresses it more directly may be more difficult to sell as a general crowd-pleasing music event.
But from an investor’s standpoint, it’s that tension that makes “Michael” so significant.
Lionsgate now has an asset with proven worldwide demand, built-in recognition, and sufficient public interest to sustain another picture.
Lionsgate has a new reason to talk to Wall Street
The clean stock narrative is not about “Michael” guaranteeing a revaluation for Lionsgate.
Hollywood economics remain tough, and global box office isn’t the same as corporate profit. Exhibitor splits, marketing, distribution deals, and performer deals all potentially cut into the money that eventually comes back to the studio.
But Wall Street generally prefers a simpler explanation, and “Michael” gets one from Lionsgate.
The company is now a more pure play on motion films, television development, distribution, franchises, library monetization, and 3 Arts Entertainment. That makes for a more substantial movie than it may have been pre-Starz split.
It also sharpens the Netflix comparison.
Netflix wins when it keeps subscribers engaged. Lionsgate wins when the proper movie can be an event over numerous windows.
The old Hollywood model isn’t dead, as “Michael” proves. Handled properly, it can still generate income, attention, and franchise leverage before a title hits streaming.
That’s the quiet dilemma for Netflix. Movies achieve reach through streaming, while theaters may retain their urgency.
For the time being, Lionsgate has just what it needs: a box office monster, a cleaner investor story, and a timely cause for Wall Street to look again at LION.
Related: Netflix has a stunning milestone in sight for 2027
Source
Originally published at www.thestreet.com.
